Swine Flu Cases Widen Reach With ‘Epidemic Curve’ (Update2)
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By Tom Randall and Lisa Rapaport
May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Swine flu may spread to at least one- third of the world’s population within the next year and a full- fledged pandemic remains possible, the World Health Organization said.
In two weeks, the flu jumped from isolated reports in the U.S. and Mexico to a widening circle of infections in Central America, South America, Europe, the Middle East, Asia and New Zealand. The disease has been confirmed in 2,371 people in 24 countries, with 44 deaths, the WHO reported today.
A panel of the Geneva-based agency will meet May 14 to decide whether drugmakers should begin producing hundreds of millions of doses of a vaccine against the new illness, a form of H1N1 influenza. Keiji Fukuda, the WHO’s assistant director- general of health, security and environment, said in a video broadcast from Geneva to Asian ministers in Bangkok today that more of the world’s 6 billion people will fall ill.
“Even if the illnesses appear relatively mild at the individual level, the global population level adds up to enormous numbers,” Fukuda said.
Fukuda declined to say how many deaths there might be in a full pandemic.
In the U.S., an outbreak in Illinois led to a jump in the number of confirmed cases to at least 896, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said today on its Web site. The cases include two U.S. deaths and may represent a fraction of those infected, officials said.
Not ‘Petering Out’
Illinois cases totaled 204, the agency said. Most of the surge is attributable to the state’s new testing capability, Illinois officials said. Before this week, only the CDC lab in Atlanta could definitively identify U.S. cases of swine flu. Test kits were delivered May 5 to laboratories in all 50 states.
“As we look at the data so far, we’re not seeing any sign that this is petering out,” Richard Besser, the acting director of the CDC, said today on a conference call. “We’re still in the upswing of what we call the epidemic curve. We see ongoing transmission and we expect that to continue.”
Hong Kong, which confirmed its first case of swine flu on May 1, and China are today releasing some people who were isolated after they were found to be on the same flight as an infected patient.
A 58-year-old Polish woman, that country’s first confirmed swine flu case, is recovering and the passengers on her May 2 flight from New York to Warsaw are being monitored for symptoms, Pawel Wierdak, a spokesman for the Polish mission to the United Nations in New York, said yesterday in an interview.
World Impact
Disease trackers are monitoring 88 cases in Spain and 34 in the U.K. to determine whether the virus has established itself outside North America. Such a finding would prompt the WHO to declare a pandemic, the first since 1968, the agency said.
The WHO panel next week will determine whether to go ahead with production of a swine flu shot and may later ask companies to stop making seasonal flu vaccines in order to free manufacturing capacity, said Marie-Paule Kieny, director of WHO’s initiative on vaccine research, at a news conference in Geneva yesterday.
“We are very early in the epidemic,” Kieny said. “We have recommended for all manufacturers to put everything into place to be able to start manufacturing the vaccines.”
Younger Patients
Data so far suggest that the virus affects youth more than seasonal influenza, and that younger patients are entering hospitals, Besser said yesterday. Few with swine flu are older than 60, and the median age is 16. It’s possible that older people have greater immunity or that younger people spread the disease on spring break vacation trips to Mexico, he said.
The CDC reversed U.S. school-closure recommendations that shut 468,000 students out of classes this week, saying schools should reopen and sick children should stay home. About 103,000 students returned to school yesterday, and it will take several days for most schools to reopen, the U.S. Education Department said.
The virus is milder than originally thought and has already rooted itself in communities across the country, making containment impossible, Besser said, explaining the school policy reversal. Even if symptoms remain mild, the ease with which the new virus spreads makes it a threat, he said.
The three main seasonal flu strains -- H3N2, another form of H1N1, and type B -- cause 250,000 to 500,000 deaths a year globally, according to the WHO. The new flu’s symptoms are similar: aches, coughing and fever.
Mexico City
Mexico City’s government planned to reduce its emergency alert level for swine flu today to “yellow,” or medium alert, from “orange,” or elevated warning, said Carolina Pavon, a spokeswoman for the city. The change could allow businesses such as bars, gymnasiums and theaters to reopen under the city’s sanitary guidelines.
Hong Kong has isolated 386 people under a seven-day quarantine imposed after they had contact with a 25-year-old man who flew in from Mexico by way of Shanghai and was tested positive for swine flu. The city released 28 people with no swine flu-like symptoms from the Lady MacLehose Holiday Village, Thomas Tsang, controller at Hong Kong’s Centre for Health Protection, said today.
China started allowing about 110 passengers on the same flight as the Mexican man to leave their hotels today after holding them under quarantine for seven days, the official Xinhua News Agency said, citing some of the people.
South Korea today confirmed its third case of swine flu.
Affected Countries
In addition to the U.S. and Mexico, swine flu has been confirmed in Austria, Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Denmark, El Salvador, France, Germany, Guatemala, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Poland, Portugal, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the U.K.
The virulence of the swine flu may reveal itself when the Southern Hemisphere faces its influenza season beginning this month through September, Besser said. Scientists will watch the virus to see whether it becomes the dominant flu strain or mutates into a deadlier illness.
WHO determined that a swine flu shot would have to be made in separate plants from the seasonal flu version. The swine flu vaccine may also require a follow-up booster shot to be effective because it is an entirely new strain, Kieny said. The single-shot seasonal flu vaccine itself acts as a booster, reinforcing natural antibodies from previous flu exposures, health authorities said.
Vaccine Makers
Sanofi-Aventis SA of Paris, Baxter International Inc. of Deerfield, Illinois, and GlaxoSmithKline Plc of London are talking with world health authorities about producing shots, the agency said.
Baxter received a sample of the virus from the WHO and is taking steps to produce a vaccine, Chris Bona, a company spokesman, said today in an interview.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration yesterday licensed Sanofi’s new vaccine plant in Swiftwater, Pennsylvania, the agency and the company said in separate statements. Sanofi said the new plant can produce 100 million doses of seasonal flu vaccine when it is operating at full capacity and the company’s Sanofi-Pasteur unit can produce another 50 million doses at its older Swiftwater facility.
Authorities advised hand washing, hygiene and staying home if sick as the most effective ways to control the outbreak. The WHO and CDC said closing borders or killing animals are costly steps that wouldn’t slow the spread of flu.
Friday, May 8, 2009
Friday, May 1, 2009
Mandatory Mass Vaccination in an event of Pandemic
1918 flu WAS preceded by mass vaccinations with typhoid shot and the people who got vaccinated were those who ended up getting sick with 'flu'.
Mass Vaccination Drill gives real shots
The Santa Clara County Public Health Department offered free flu shots as a way to test years of planning for a real-life medical emergency.
"This could be for anything where we really have to bring in large numbers of people and get them vaccinated or give them antibodies in a very short amount of time," public health officer Marty Fenstersheib said.
In Alameda County, a similar drill was carried out for first responders - police, fire and medical workers.
Government template for mass vaccination
It’s called “ring vaccination” or “traced vaccination” — a round ‘em up and vaccinate program forced on the population by the government. DHS and FEMA have plans in place to accomplish this, as D. H. Williams wrote for the Daily Newscaster in February. An Indiana county municipal official in the vicinity of Chicago revealed a plan to “vaccinate the entire population within 48 hours” as part of a Hazard Mitigation Plan (YouTube clip below).
During the legally mandated meetings held with FEMA and DHS different disaster scenarios were reveled to county officials:
• Every county in the nation would be required to prepare a Hazard Mitigation Plan.
• The county should prepare a plan to vaccinate the entire population within 48 hours and practice the plan several times.
• FEMA inquired to where mass graves could be placed in the county and would they accept bodies from elsewhere.
• The sheriffs department via the state sheriff association was told that no .223 ammunition rounds would be available as the military would be purchasing all stocks.
• The county was asked to make plans for hardening of police and fire stations, putting in hardened bunker type buildings around town.
• The county was asked to make plans for the possibility of up to 400,000 refugees from Chicago.
In 2006, a pastor came forward and told Alex Jones about a nationwide FEMA program designed to train religious leaders on how to pacify their flocks in the event of a national crisis. In addition to a declaration of martial law, property and firearm seizures, and forced relocation, the FEMA program envisions mass vaccinations. “In the event of an outbreak or a bio-terrorist attack, there’d be a mass vaccination… they have a program nationwide ‘Pills in People’s Palm In 48 Hours’,” an anonymous pastor told Jones.
In 2004, the Kansas Department of Health and Environment, along with ten county health departments, organized a series of exercises designed to assist local health department officials to exercise plans to mass vaccinate entire communities. It was dubbed “Flu-X” and it encouraged participants to get a flu shot.
Now we have a “template” to be used for mass vaccination. In a document released by the Regional Counter Terrorism Task Forces, “specific dispensing site operational plans and standard operating procedures” for mass vaccination are put forward:
The dispensing of medications/vaccine is a core function of the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) plan and preparedness. It is the most complex and challenging of all the functions since large numbers of persons must be provided medication/vaccine in just a few days when an event occurs. The key to survival for most people is to provide antibiotics/vaccine as soon as possible and/or before an individual begins to show any clinical symptoms. This plan describes the dispensing of medications to a large number of people for prophylaxis(vaccination) of asymptomatic individuals as well as treatment of symptomatic persons.
Time Magazine Preps Americans For Mandatory Vaccinations
Says public should “trust” government when it institutes draconian measures to deal with pandemic
Time Magazine’s coverage of the swine flu scare has a noticeable subplot - preparing Americans for draconian measures to combat a future pandemic as well as forcing them to accept the idea of mandatory vaccinations.
In an article entitled How to Deal with Swine Flu: Heeding the Mistakes of 1976, the piece discusses how dozens died and hundreds were injured from vaccines as a result of the 1976 swine flu fiasco, when the Ford administration attempted to use the infection of soldiers at Fort Dix as a pretext for a mass vaccination of the entire country.
Despite acknowledging that the 1976 farce was an example of “how not to handle a flu outbreak,” the article still introduces the notion that officials “may soon have to consider whether to institute draconian measures to combat the disease.”
Later we discover exactly what this will entail, namely “when to institute mass vaccination programs,” according to Howard Markel, director of the Center for the History of Medicine at the University of Michigan and a historical consultant to the CDC on flu pandemics.
Markel notes that the less politically combustible situation in America today compared to the post-Watergate era of Ford would make such draconian measures more achievable.
“Even so, he says, citizens still need to trust that the government is working for the greater good,” adds the article. “The American public has to be forgiving and patient and do [their] part too,” according to Markel.
Americans would indeed have to be very trustworthy and ultimately forgiving in taking a vaccine by government decree manufactured by a company that was been caught red-handed contaminating their vaccines with far deadlier viruses than swine flu.
As we reported yesterday, Baxter International confirmed over the weekend that it is working with the World Health Organization on a potential vaccine to curb the deadly swine flu virus that is blamed for scores of deaths in Mexico and has emerged as a threat in the U.S., reports the Chicago Tribune.
As reported by multiple sources last month, including the Times of India, vaccines contaminated with deadly live H5N1 avian flu virus were distributed to 18 countries last December by a lab at an Austrian branch of Baxter.
Since the probability of mixing a live virus biological weapon with vaccine material by accident is virtually impossible, this leaves no other explanation than that the contamination was a deliberate attempt to weaponize the H5N1 virus to its most potent extreme and distribute it via conventional flu vaccines to the population who would then infect others to a devastating degree as the disease went airborne.
These are the people we are supposed to “trust” and “forgive” according to Time Magazine and Markel when the federal government breaks down our door, guns drawn and dripping needle in hand.
Markel says the political climate in the U.S. is much less combustible today than in the post-Watergate era, when Ford faced a skeptical public. Even so, he says, citizens still need to trust that the government is working for the greater good. He says, "The good news is that our surveillance, methodology and public health professionals have never been better. But we are human and mistakes may be made — as happened with the 1976 swine flu affair — and we may jump the gun in the hope of preserving life. The current outbreak is a situation in flux. The American public has to be forgiving and patient and do [their] part too."
An example of the Emergency Planning:
Pennsylvania Department of Health
Pandemic Influenza
· Treatment and Prevention: Vaccine
o Vaccine takes 6-8 months to produce following the emergence of a new virus.
o Supplies will be limited, if available at all.
o Establish priority groups for use of limited vaccine.
§ Two federal advisory committees provided recommendations on the use of vaccines and antiviral drugs in an influenza pandemic.
§ The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)
§ The National Vaccine Advisory Committee (NVAC)
o 2nd dose after 30 days will likely be required.
o Need to monitor vaccine safety and efficacy.
Vaccine and Medication Distribution Workgroup
· Pandemic Influenza Planning incorporates the use of PODs
o PODs are a location the population will go in the event of needing to perform mass prophylaxis or mass vaccination
·
o Assumes enough vaccine or antiviral medication has been provided for the entire population
Confirmed larger then normal vaccine dose needed for immune response
Time is a critical factor.
Volunteer staffing in a POD (Point of Administration) to administer an antiviral/vaccine to the total population in 48-hours.
Mass Vaccination Drill gives real shots
The Santa Clara County Public Health Department offered free flu shots as a way to test years of planning for a real-life medical emergency.
"This could be for anything where we really have to bring in large numbers of people and get them vaccinated or give them antibodies in a very short amount of time," public health officer Marty Fenstersheib said.
In Alameda County, a similar drill was carried out for first responders - police, fire and medical workers.
Government template for mass vaccination
It’s called “ring vaccination” or “traced vaccination” — a round ‘em up and vaccinate program forced on the population by the government. DHS and FEMA have plans in place to accomplish this, as D. H. Williams wrote for the Daily Newscaster in February. An Indiana county municipal official in the vicinity of Chicago revealed a plan to “vaccinate the entire population within 48 hours” as part of a Hazard Mitigation Plan (YouTube clip below).
During the legally mandated meetings held with FEMA and DHS different disaster scenarios were reveled to county officials:
• Every county in the nation would be required to prepare a Hazard Mitigation Plan.
• The county should prepare a plan to vaccinate the entire population within 48 hours and practice the plan several times.
• FEMA inquired to where mass graves could be placed in the county and would they accept bodies from elsewhere.
• The sheriffs department via the state sheriff association was told that no .223 ammunition rounds would be available as the military would be purchasing all stocks.
• The county was asked to make plans for hardening of police and fire stations, putting in hardened bunker type buildings around town.
• The county was asked to make plans for the possibility of up to 400,000 refugees from Chicago.
In 2006, a pastor came forward and told Alex Jones about a nationwide FEMA program designed to train religious leaders on how to pacify their flocks in the event of a national crisis. In addition to a declaration of martial law, property and firearm seizures, and forced relocation, the FEMA program envisions mass vaccinations. “In the event of an outbreak or a bio-terrorist attack, there’d be a mass vaccination… they have a program nationwide ‘Pills in People’s Palm In 48 Hours’,” an anonymous pastor told Jones.
In 2004, the Kansas Department of Health and Environment, along with ten county health departments, organized a series of exercises designed to assist local health department officials to exercise plans to mass vaccinate entire communities. It was dubbed “Flu-X” and it encouraged participants to get a flu shot.
Now we have a “template” to be used for mass vaccination. In a document released by the Regional Counter Terrorism Task Forces, “specific dispensing site operational plans and standard operating procedures” for mass vaccination are put forward:
The dispensing of medications/vaccine is a core function of the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) plan and preparedness. It is the most complex and challenging of all the functions since large numbers of persons must be provided medication/vaccine in just a few days when an event occurs. The key to survival for most people is to provide antibiotics/vaccine as soon as possible and/or before an individual begins to show any clinical symptoms. This plan describes the dispensing of medications to a large number of people for prophylaxis(vaccination) of asymptomatic individuals as well as treatment of symptomatic persons.
Time Magazine Preps Americans For Mandatory Vaccinations
Says public should “trust” government when it institutes draconian measures to deal with pandemic
Time Magazine’s coverage of the swine flu scare has a noticeable subplot - preparing Americans for draconian measures to combat a future pandemic as well as forcing them to accept the idea of mandatory vaccinations.
In an article entitled How to Deal with Swine Flu: Heeding the Mistakes of 1976, the piece discusses how dozens died and hundreds were injured from vaccines as a result of the 1976 swine flu fiasco, when the Ford administration attempted to use the infection of soldiers at Fort Dix as a pretext for a mass vaccination of the entire country.
Despite acknowledging that the 1976 farce was an example of “how not to handle a flu outbreak,” the article still introduces the notion that officials “may soon have to consider whether to institute draconian measures to combat the disease.”
Later we discover exactly what this will entail, namely “when to institute mass vaccination programs,” according to Howard Markel, director of the Center for the History of Medicine at the University of Michigan and a historical consultant to the CDC on flu pandemics.
Markel notes that the less politically combustible situation in America today compared to the post-Watergate era of Ford would make such draconian measures more achievable.
“Even so, he says, citizens still need to trust that the government is working for the greater good,” adds the article. “The American public has to be forgiving and patient and do [their] part too,” according to Markel.
Americans would indeed have to be very trustworthy and ultimately forgiving in taking a vaccine by government decree manufactured by a company that was been caught red-handed contaminating their vaccines with far deadlier viruses than swine flu.
As we reported yesterday, Baxter International confirmed over the weekend that it is working with the World Health Organization on a potential vaccine to curb the deadly swine flu virus that is blamed for scores of deaths in Mexico and has emerged as a threat in the U.S., reports the Chicago Tribune.
As reported by multiple sources last month, including the Times of India, vaccines contaminated with deadly live H5N1 avian flu virus were distributed to 18 countries last December by a lab at an Austrian branch of Baxter.
Since the probability of mixing a live virus biological weapon with vaccine material by accident is virtually impossible, this leaves no other explanation than that the contamination was a deliberate attempt to weaponize the H5N1 virus to its most potent extreme and distribute it via conventional flu vaccines to the population who would then infect others to a devastating degree as the disease went airborne.
These are the people we are supposed to “trust” and “forgive” according to Time Magazine and Markel when the federal government breaks down our door, guns drawn and dripping needle in hand.
Markel says the political climate in the U.S. is much less combustible today than in the post-Watergate era, when Ford faced a skeptical public. Even so, he says, citizens still need to trust that the government is working for the greater good. He says, "The good news is that our surveillance, methodology and public health professionals have never been better. But we are human and mistakes may be made — as happened with the 1976 swine flu affair — and we may jump the gun in the hope of preserving life. The current outbreak is a situation in flux. The American public has to be forgiving and patient and do [their] part too."
An example of the Emergency Planning:
Pennsylvania Department of Health
Pandemic Influenza
· Treatment and Prevention: Vaccine
o Vaccine takes 6-8 months to produce following the emergence of a new virus.
o Supplies will be limited, if available at all.
o Establish priority groups for use of limited vaccine.
§ Two federal advisory committees provided recommendations on the use of vaccines and antiviral drugs in an influenza pandemic.
§ The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)
§ The National Vaccine Advisory Committee (NVAC)
o 2nd dose after 30 days will likely be required.
o Need to monitor vaccine safety and efficacy.
Vaccine and Medication Distribution Workgroup
· Pandemic Influenza Planning incorporates the use of PODs
o PODs are a location the population will go in the event of needing to perform mass prophylaxis or mass vaccination
·
o Assumes enough vaccine or antiviral medication has been provided for the entire population
Confirmed larger then normal vaccine dose needed for immune response
Time is a critical factor.
Volunteer staffing in a POD (Point of Administration) to administer an antiviral/vaccine to the total population in 48-hours.
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